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Conférences 2013 - Tatsuji Takahashi
Conférencier : Tatsuji Takahashi : "Biconditional probability in reasoning, judgment and decision-making"
Date : Jeudi 21 mars de 16H 15-18H (salle B 106) Résumé : The word “if” plays quite crucial roles in reasoning, judgment and decision– making, especially under uncertainty. Conditionals have recently begun modeled by the conditional probability, the probability of conditional event q|p, which was proposed in the theory of subjective probability by de Finetti. Baratgin, Over, and Politser (in press) empirically confirmed its validity in a three–valued framework. In the theoretical framework, biconditional (such as “if p then q, and if q then p”) is expressed by biconditional event q||p. We show that this biconditional explains quite many experimental results in psychology of reasoning that have not been given enough interpretations. We also prove that the biconditional, named pARIs (proportion of assumed--‐‑to--‐‑be instances) describes the result in causal induction the best (Takahashi, Kohno, & Oyo, 2010; Takahashi & Yokokawa, submited). This suggests a possibility of integrating deductive and inductive reasoning with the pivot of biconditional event. We also show that it models people’s biconditionals in truth table tasks and probability judgment. If time permits, we will also briefly talk about the adaptive rationality of another biconditional, material equivalence (ME). In the two--‐‑armed bandit problems, which form the most fundamental class of iterative decision--‐‑making and machine learning, we see the optimal performance when the biconditional is utilized as a value function. again despite its extreme simplicity, ME simultaneously implements three cognitive properties: Satisficing (Simon, 1956), risk atitude (in Prospect theory by Kahneman & Tversky, 1984), and comparative valuation of actions (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). These properties combined together overcome the exploitation–exploration dilemma and speed–accuracy tradeoff that are essential in decision--‐‑making and learning under uncertainty. Creation date : 20/03/2013 @ 08:21 |