Conférencier : Professor David Over Université de Durham (Department of Psychology):

Date : Jeudi 9 juin de 16H-18H (salle D328)


Résumé :

There is a new probabilistic, Bayesian paradigm in the psychology of reasoning, with a new psychological account of the indicative conditional of natural language and conditional reasoning. The new paradigm is greatly supported by experimental results showing that people judge the probability of the indicative conditional, P(if p then q), to be the conditional probability, P(q|p). These experimental results will be briefly reviewed. The new paradigm is more general than the older binary approach and can be extended to cover uncertain diachronic inference as well as uncertain synchronic inference. It has a probabilistic definition of validity in terms of uncertainty, which will be reviewed and compared with other  possible accounts of validity. Possible ways of further testing and refining this new paradigm will be discussed.